COVID-19 Regional Case Projections

As COVID-19 case rates continue to change on a daily basis, it is critical to the safety and well-being of our patients and communities to stay informed. To keep you up-to-date, we've put together a dashboard that includes regional COVID-19 case projection information.

COVID-19 Regional Projections Dashboard

Our dashboard includes an interactive map of Minnesota, North Dakota and Wisconsin that allows you to compare case numbers and projections per state, filter through a list of available metrics and even drill down to case rates per county with a single click of the desired county within the map. The information provided by our dashboard is updated once a day, each business day (Monday-Friday).

COVID-19 Regional Projections Dashboard Video Tour

Essentia Health COVID-19 Case Rate Projections Dashboard Video Tour Video Transcript

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This

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Website, Essentia Health COVID-19 Regional Projections

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dashboard was built by Essentia Health's enterprise analytics department and is intended to monitor the state of COVID-19 in the upper-Midwest, specifically in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and North Dakota. We pull case and testing data from various public sources and calculate a number of relevant metrics at the county and state levels. The bar at the top indicates the current, most recent data-- the date of the most recent data as well as the total cumulative cases in each state as of that date.

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Text, All cases as of 11/21/2020. Across the top, All States, 706,348, Minnesota, 262,599, North Dakota, 71,540, Wisconsin, 372,219. Cases per 10,000 in all states. Map in the center with two charts to the right, the upper one shows state comparison of cases per 10,000, the lower one shows projected cases based on doubling rates: All states

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The map will show the most recent value for a particular metric at the county level. So the list of selected-- the metrics available to look at is on the left side drop-down menu. And a description of the particular metric will show up underneath the color legend.

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Pop-out boxes

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Hovering over a particular county will show the metric value-- the population. The top graph will show the total case count over time. And the bottom graph will show the selected metric over time. The graph on the top-right will show the selected metric at the state level over time with the most recent value for each state called out on the right-hand side. Selecting a state from this upper, left-hand side menu will update the map to show just that state. And it will also highlight the line for that state on the upper-right. The graph on the bottom-right is a simple projection of case counts in the next two weeks. A range of projection scenarios are calculated using observed doubling rates from the previous week. So the doubling rate is the number of days to double the number of cases. A fast growth, medium growth, and slow growth scenario are calculated using the observed doubling rates from the past week and projected out two weeks forward. So choosing a state from this menu on the top-left will also update the projections for just that particular state.

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Under Choose State on the upper left, she chooses the first radio button, All States.

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In terms of the metrics available, the 14-day number of new cases for every 10,000 people has been a simple way to estimate active cases in an area.

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The map shades in different colors.

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This has been very helpful for communities to understand the current prevalence of COVID-19 in their region and how it might be changing.

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Under the Choose a Metric dropdown on the left, the second section, she chooses 7-Day % Positive Tests

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The percent of tests that have been positive in the past 7 days is also a very helpful metric. However, there are a couple of caveats with this. The most obvious being that Wisconsin reports their data at the individual level. So the percent positive in Wisconsin is calculating the percent of individuals who have tested positive for the first time, whereas in North Dakota and Minnesota, this is calculated at the individual test level regardless of how many times an individual has been tested. This is why the numbers look dramatically different between Wisconsin and the other two states.

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She hovers over the two areas.

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However, it's still helpful to determine trends within a particular county when you hover over that county. And you can see that bottom graph shows how the percent positive is changing for that particular area. This data is updated daily during the business week Monday through Friday and made available to the public. Please don't hesitate to reach out to Essentia Health if there are any questions or concerns.

Dashboard Metrics & Data Sources

Metrics

The "COVID-19 Regional Projections" dashboard allows you to view the following metrics individually and comparatively for Minnesota, North Dakota and Wisconsin:

  • Total Case Number Per State
    Current total number of cases per state.
  • Total Case Number
    Current total number of cases between all states (Minnesota, North Dakota and Wisconsin).
  • Cases Per 10,000
    Cumulative number of cases for every 10,000 people.
  • 5-Day Average Growth Rate
    Daily percent change in cases for every 10,000 people, averaged over previous 5 days.
  • 14-Day New Cases Per 10,000
    Total number of new cases for every 10,000 people in the past 14 days.
  • 7-Day Average Doubling Rate
    The number of days it takes to double the number of cases, calculated daily and averaged over the past 7 days.
  • Tests Per 10,000
    Cumulative number of tests conducted for every 10,000 people.
  • 7-Day % Positive Tests
    Total percent of tests conducted in the past 7 days that are positive (MN and ND); or total percent of people with a positive test in the past 7 Days (WI).
  • Daily New Cases
    Total number of new cases reported on a given day.
  • Projected Cases Based on Doubling Rates
    Projected cases broken out by growth trajectory (Slow Growth, Medium Growth and Fast Growth) vs. Observed Cases (actual current trajectory).

Data Sources

The "COVID-19 Regional Projections" dashboard includes data from the following sources:

Stay Informed on COVID-19 Case Projections

Go the COVID-19 Regional Projections Dashboard

Stay Informed on COVID-19 Case Projections

Keep up-to-date on the prevalence of COVID-19 in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and North Dakota.

View COVID-19 Regional Case Projections

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